An overlapping generations model ( olg ) are integrated in this cge model to describe the consumers " behaviors 本文在cge模型中整合了跨際迭代模型(overlappinggenerations),來(lái)描述消費(fèi)者的行為。
On one hand, though there are lots of discussions on government debt in china nowadays, systemic studies on government debt issuance management are rather few . the paper makes a positive attempt in this aspect . on the other hand, some quantitative models applied in the paper, such as overlapping generation model on sustainable scale of government debt, linear regression model on current scale of government debt in china and game theoretical model on bond auction, contribute to clarification and efficiency of argumentation greatly 通過(guò)以上各方面的討論,本文主要體現(xiàn)出兩個(gè)方面的特點(diǎn):一方面,盡管近年來(lái)學(xué)術(shù)界有關(guān)國(guó)債問(wèn)題的專題研究已有不少,但是對(duì)發(fā)行管理進(jìn)行的系統(tǒng)考察至今尚不多見(jiàn),本文則在這方面進(jìn)行了有益的嘗試;另一方面,在研究方法上,本文力求通過(guò)模型方式和計(jì)量手段的運(yùn)用使有關(guān)結(jié)論有一個(gè)更為堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ),例如:在討論適度國(guó)債規(guī)模存在機(jī)制時(shí)運(yùn)用的世代交疊模型、在實(shí)證分析我國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模時(shí)運(yùn)用的多元回歸模型以及在研究國(guó)債招標(biāo)制度時(shí)運(yùn)用的博弈論模型等,都是這種努力的體現(xiàn)。
Fourthly, under the structure of general equilibrium, it analyzes the speculative bubbles " impact on the economy with overlapping generation model which considers the technology advances and random real capital gain ratio . it not only introduces the achievements of foreign economists ( tirole, 1985, weil, 1987; blanchard and fisher, 1989 ); but also does the creative research on the movable economic efficiency during the transitional period 第四,在一般均衡框架下,采用具有技術(shù)進(jìn)步和隨機(jī)實(shí)質(zhì)資本投資收益內(nèi)容提要率的跨時(shí)迭代模型研究投機(jī)泡沫對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,推廣了國(guó)外經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家(五role,2955;weil,1957:blanch出妞助dfisher,1989)的研究成果。
Macroeconomic mechanism that decides the existence of reasonable scale of government debt is demonstrated with overlapping generation model in this part . then, a linear regression model is developed to evaluate current scale of scale of government debt in china, and to forecast its possible tendency in following two years 在此問(wèn)題上,本文既以理論的方法說(shuō)明了適度國(guó)債規(guī)模的存在機(jī)制,又通過(guò)計(jì)量的方法對(duì)我國(guó)當(dāng)前和未來(lái)兩年可能的國(guó)債規(guī)模進(jìn)行了實(shí)證考察;其次是國(guó)債結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題。
The chapter 9 establishes one two-overlapping generations model, analysis the macro-economic effect of the system transform . the chapter 10 uses one simple vertical equilibrium model, discusses the probability and process of gaining the equilibrium by extend the coverage without reform the current scheme . as the last chapter of the whole paper, chapter 11 summarizes the paper conclusions 其中:第九章建立了簡(jiǎn)單的兩期疊代模型,分析了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度轉(zhuǎn)軌的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響,考察了制度轉(zhuǎn)軌的時(shí)機(jī)與條件;第十章建立了簡(jiǎn)單的橫向均衡模型,探討了在制度內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)均衡的現(xiàn)實(shí)性、可能性,并對(duì)引進(jìn)新的參保對(duì)象實(shí)現(xiàn)制度的橫向均衡進(jìn)行了數(shù)值模擬。